| Property | Value |
|---|
|
?:abstract
|
-
BACKGROUND: Disparities in cross-regional coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) mortality remain poorly understood. The association between pre-epidemic health and epidemic mortality can inform a policy response to future outbreaks. METHOD: We conducted an ecological study of the association between the cumulative deaths attributed to Covid-19 epidemic in the 20 Italian regions and nine determinants of population health derived from a systematic review of the literature. We used a multiple least square regression to predict the cross-regional variation in mortality observed from the onset of the epidemic to 23 September 2020. RESULTS: Four independent variables best explained the cross-regional differences in the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19: the force of infection, population density, number of elderly living in assisted facilities and the standard rate of diabetes. The semi-partial correlation coefficients suggest that the force of infection and the number of elderly residents in nursing homes were the dominant predictors of the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19. Statistical controls and validation confirmed the generalizability of the predictive model. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that a significant reduction of social contacts in main metropolitan areas and the timely isolation of elderly and diabetic residents could significantly reduce the death toll of the next wave of Covid-19 infection in Italy.
|
|
?:creator
|
|
|
?:journal
|
|
|
?:license
|
|
|
?:publication_isRelatedTo_Disease
|
|
|
?:source
|
|
|
?:title
|
-
Cross-regional variations of Covid-19 mortality in Italy: an ecological study
|
|
?:type
|
|
|
?:who_covidence_id
|
|
|
?:year
|
|
![[This page as RDF]](https://research.tib.eu/covid-19/static/rdf-icon.gif){kind=icon}