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?:abstract
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Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine is known to have \'bystander benefits\' in protecting against heterologous infections; interim analysis of the \'ACTIVATE\' trial shows protection against respiratory infections in the elderly population. Epidemiologic studies suggest a potential benefit of BCG vaccination on COVID-19 outcomes. Differential past BCG vaccination policies between the former East and West German states provides a unique natural experiment to assess the potential effect of prior BCG vaccination on COVID-19. We estimated a 5% heterologous vaccine efficacy in the highly vaccinated former East Germany using the COVID-19 International Modeling (CoMo) Consortium model. A comparable BCG vaccination campaign undertaken prior to the pandemic in former West Germany, instituted along with known country-wide transmission reduction measures, is associated with a 37% decrease in projected mortality by mid-summer, 2020. These findings support a combined heterologous vaccine and non-pharmaceutical interventions (HVI+NPI) approach to mitigate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic until SARS-CoV-2 specific vaccines are widely distributed.
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?:doi
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10.1080/21645515.2021.1872344
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?:doi
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?:journal
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Human_vaccines_&_immunotherapeutics
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?:pmid
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?:pmid
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?:title
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Anticipated reduction in COVID-19 mortality due to population-wide BCG vaccination: evidence from Germany.
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