|
?:abstract
|
-
In 2016, Trump was unanimously seen as the loser in the November 8 election. In contrast, using a model of opinion dynamics I have been developing for a few decades within the framework of sociophysics, I predicted his victory against all odds. According to the model, the winning paradoxical martingale of 2016, has been Trump capability to activate frozen prejudices in many voters by provoking their real indignation. However, four year later, Trump shocking outings do not shock anymore, they became devitalized, losing their ability to generate major emotional reactions. Does this mean that this time around he will lose the 2020 election to Biden, as nearly all analysts, pundits and commentators still predict? No, because although frozen prejudices will remain frozen, this time the spontaneously activated prejudices are benefiting to both Biden and Trump. The main ones are the fear of the other candidate policy and the personal stand facing a danger. In addition, since Trump presidency having polarized a large part of American voters into narrow-minded anti-Trump and narrow-minded pro-Trump, those I designate in my model as inflexibles, will also drive the dynamics. Both effects, prejudices and inflexibles can either compete or cooperate making their combination within each state, to determine the faith of the state election. Tiny differences can make the outcome. Based on my rough estimates of associated proportions of inflexibles and prejudices, the model predicts Trump victory in the 2020 November election.
|
![[This page as RDF]](https://research.tib.eu/covid-19/static/rdf-icon.gif){kind=icon}