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?:abstract
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Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the most significant global health crisis of the 21(st) century. The aim of this study was to develop a model to estimate the effect of undocumented infections, seasonal infectivity, immunity, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing, on the transmission, morbidity, and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 in New York State (NYS). Simulations revealed dramatic infectivity driven by undocumented infections, and a peak basic reproductive number in NYS of 5.7. NPIs have been effective, and relaxation >50% will result in tens-of-thousands more deaths. Endemic infection is likely to occur in the absence of profound sustained immunity. As a result, until an effective vaccine or other effective pharmaceutical intervention is developed, it will be critical to not reduce NPIs >50% below current levels. This study establishes fundamental characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, which can help policymakers navigate combating this virus in the coming years.
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?:doi
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?:doi
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10.1101/2020.05.08.20095505
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document_parses/pdf_json/3e35a2ee7e19d254c7b9e46969ebb30f76b7427c.json; document_parses/pdf_json/aa4ace6108b8733899306889e491e0e3ebe1b3b2.json; document_parses/pdf_json/dd53d5d31dfa493d979e29efb55077c80813dbe9.json
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document_parses/pmc_json/PMC7273263.xml.json
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?:source
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MedRxiv; Medline; PMC; WHO
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?:title
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Significant Relaxation of SARS-CoV-2-Targeted Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Will Result in Profound Mortality: A New York State Modelling Study
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