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Background: There is currently a pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 The intensity and duration of this first wave in the UK may be dependent on whether SARS-CoV-2 transmits more effectively in the winter than the summer and the UK Government response is partially built upon the assumption that those infected will develoimmunity to reinfection in the short term In this paper we examine evidence for seasonality and immunity to laboratory-confirmed seasonal coronavirus (HCoV) from a prospective cohort study in England Methods: In this analysis of the Flu Watch cohort, we examine seasonal trends for PCR-confirmed coronavirus infections (HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-229E) in all participants during winter seasons (2006-2007, 2007-2008, 2008-2009) and during the first wave of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic (May-Se2009) We also included data from the pandemic and ‘post-pandemic’ winter seasons (2009-2010 and 2010-2011) to identify individuals with two confirmed HCoV infections and examine evidence for immunity against homologous reinfection Results: We tested 1,104 swabs taken during respiratory illness and detected HCoV in 199 during the first four seasons The rate of confirmed HCoV infection across all seasons was 390 (95% C338-448) per 100,000 person-weeks;highest in the Nov-Mar 2008/9 season at 674 (95%C537-835) The highest rate was in February at 759 (95% C580-975) Data collected during May-Se2009 showed there was small amounts of ongoing transmission, with four cases detected during this period Eight participants had two confirmed infections, of which none had the same strain twice Conclusion: Our results provide evidence that HCoV infection in England is most intense in winter, but that there is a small amount of ongoing transmission during summer periods We found some evidence of immunity against homologous reinfection
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