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?:abstract
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Understanding when SARS-CoV-2 emerged is critical to evaluating our current approach to monitoring novel zoonotic pathogens and understanding the failure of early containment and mitigation efforts for COVID-19. We employed a coalescent framework to combine retrospective molecular clock inference with forward epidemiological simulations to determine how long SARS-CoV-2 could have circulated prior to the time of the most recent common ancestor. Our results define the period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Hubei province. By characterizing the likely dynamics of the virus before it was discovered, we show that over two-thirds of SARS-CoV-2-like zoonotic events would be self-limited, dying out without igniting a pandemic. Our findings highlight the shortcomings of zoonosis surveillance approaches for detecting highly contagious pathogens with moderate mortality rates.
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?:doi
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10.1101/2020.11.20.392126
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?:pdf_json_files
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document_parses/pdf_json/93ef74a465ba2526b2744d34e1c657b1fc23602d.json; document_parses/pdf_json/1d375a85467193988b3e0d23d6f3be9eca0d0536.json
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document_parses/pmc_json/PMC7709179.xml.json
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?:source
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BioRxiv; Medline; PMC; WHO
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?:title
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Timing the SARS-CoV-2 Index Case in Hubei Province
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