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We use daily data from Lombardy, the Italian region most affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, to calibrate a SIR model on each municipality. Municipalities with a higher initial number of cases feature a lower rate of diffusion, not attributable to herd immunity: there is a robust and strongly significant negative correlation between the estimated basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) and the initial outbreak size. This represents novel evidence of the prevalence-response elasticity in a cross-sectional setting, characterized by a same health system and homogeneous social distancing regulations. By ruling out alternative explanations, we conclude that a higher number of cases causes changes of behavior, such as a more strict adoption of social distancing measures among the population, that reduce the spread. This finding calls for the distribution of detailed epidemiological data to populations affected by COVID-19 outbreaks.
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?:doi
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10.1016/j.healthpol.2020.10.017
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document_parses/pdf_json/d5d4f6c2ced81397543dbb8140110fe2fa4fe3ac.json
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document_parses/pmc_json/PMC7649031.xml.json
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?:title
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COVID-19: [Formula: see text] is lower where outbreak is larger()
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