PropertyValue
?:abstract
  • The present paper introduces a new model used to study and analyse the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) epidemic-reported-data from Spain. This is a Hidden Markov Model whose hidden layer is a regeneration process with Poisson immigration, Po-INAR(1), together with a mechanism that allows the estimation of the under-reporting in non-stationary count time series. A novelty of the model is that the expectation of the unobserved process\'s innovations is a time-dependent function defined in such a way that information about the spread of an epidemic, as modelled through a Susceptible-Infectious-Removed dynamical system, is incorporated into the model. In addition, the parameter controlling the intensity of the under-reporting is also made to vary with time to adjust to possible seasonality or trend in the data. Maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate the parameters of the model.
?:creator
?:journal
  • PLoS_One
?:license
  • unk
?:publication_isRelatedTo_Disease
?:source
  • WHO
?:title
  • Estimating the real burden of disease under a pandemic situation: The SARS-CoV2 case
?:type
?:who_covidence_id
  • #992693
?:year
  • 2020

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