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?:abstract
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This article aims to estimate the impact of lower tax revenues on the funding of basic education, in the context of the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic Three hypothetical scenarios of lowering tax revenues are estimated and analyzed, along with their effects on the investment in education in the states and municipalities, per-pupil and overall, using a methodology that combines data on tax revenues, mandatory allocation in education, and enrollment numbers In the most optimistic scenario, the reduction of 7% in the net tax revenues would lead to a decrease in investment in basic education of more than R$ 16 6 billion The monthly per-pupil expenditure, which in 2018 was R$ 460 on average, could drop between 4 1% and 26 9% depending on which scenario is considered This probable reduction in revenues requires urgent measures to attenuate the deepening of educational inequalities, converging to the transference of federal funds to sub-national governments Finally, we highlight the economic virtue of investing in education, when considering the capillarity of education, and its character of intensive investment in personnel © 2020, Fundacao Getulio Vargas All rights reserved
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