|
?:abstract
|
-
The purpose of this research is to determine the global market development scenarios as a result of the influence of the COVID-19 virus, and also to determine to the extent possible the consequences for the global market To establish the various effects of the coronavirus on the economy and protective equipment, as well as probable transmission channels Methods Mathematical, empirical, systemic, analytical, economic and other approaches are used to study the development of the world market in the conditions of the coronavirus disease Results We give a brief description of the Kermack-Mac-Kendrick epidemic model, corresponding to the general nature of the current coronavirus epidemic, that can dramatically change the global market development scenario We show three scenarios for the global economy development Quick recovery implies a slowdown in economic growth in the United States and Europe will end by the end of March;China is likely to recover by the end of April, and demand will recover relatively quickly Global slowdown implies the economy will recover at the end of the second quarter, but global GDP growth in 2020 will drop to 1 1 5 percent Global pandemic implies a serious shock to the global economy, which can last for almost a year Conclusion Three scenarios of the world economy development in the context of the coronavirus crisis are formulated, as well as the various effects of the coronavirus disease on the world economy are identified;remedies are proposed We concluded that the coronavirus disease will affect microeconomic heritage, macroeconomic heritage and political heritage Multilaterally, the crisis can be interpreted as a call for increased cooperation or, on the contrary, a need to expand the bipolar centers of geopolitical power We list a number of mathematical papers with extensive bibliography on COVID-19 On the example of one of such works we have shown that the Kermack-Mac-Kendrick model remains the backbone of the research in this sphere
|
![[This page as RDF]](https://research.tib.eu/covid-19/static/rdf-icon.gif){kind=icon}