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?:abstract
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Background: The paper estimates the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions implement-ed to slow-down the SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in Slovenia Our main measures of interest are the re-productive number in time and the total number of infected individuals Methods: We apply a recently proposed Bayes model, which is built using most recent data of 12 (model A) or 10 European countries (model B, Spain and Italy excluded) Results: The reproductive number after lock-down is estimated to equal 0 6, with the whole 95% credible interval remaining below 1 [0 3–0 9] By excluding Italy and Spain from the model (mod-el B), the estimated reproductive number increases to 0 8 (95% credible interval [0 5–1 2]) The estimated proportion of infected individuals in Slovenia is below 1% (0 53 [0 23–1 01]% in model A and 0 66 [0 26–1 45]% in model B) Thus, it is our opinion that the official number of confirmed cases underestimates the true one approximately by a factor of 10 Conclusion: The results indicate that the interventions were successful, we estimate that the current reproductive number is below 1 We estimate that it is sensible to keep the current set of interventions for at least 2 more weeks, as we expect that this will ensure at least 5 additional weeks before the need to reinitiate lock-down
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