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This study analyzes the possibility that COVID-19 will increase the risk of a military conflict between the United States and People\'s Republic of China The mechanism is that COVID-19 weakens American economic output, which undermines the U S capability to project force This enables China\'s efforts to revise the status quo Although a rapid collapse of American power due to COVID-19 would theoretically increase the likelihood of an armed conflict, this scenario is unlikely due to the centrality of the U S dollar in the global financial system I therefore argue that COVID-19 increases the short term risk of military crises, particularly in the South China Sea and Persian Gulf, but does not significantly increase the likelihood of a power transition and full scale war However, the long term depends on the ability of the U S to respond adequately to the COVID-19 crisis
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Peace_Economics_Peace_Science_and_Public_Policy
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Will COVID-19 Cause a War? Understanding the Case of the U.S. and China
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