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We developed a decision analysis model to evaluate risks and benefits of delaying scheduled bariatric surgery during the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Our base case was a 45-year-old female with diabetes and a body mass index of 45 kg/m(2). We compared immediate with delayed surgery after 6 months to allow for COVID-19 prevalence to decrease. We found that immediate and delayed bariatric surgeries after 6 months resulted in similar 20-year overall survival. When the probability of COVID-19 infection exceeded 4%, then delayed surgery improved survival. If future COVID-19 infection rates were at least half those in the immediate scenario, then immediate surgery was favored and local infection rates had to exceed 9% before surgical delay improved survival. Surgeons should consider local disease prevalence and patient comorbidities associated with increased mortality before resuming bariatric surgery programs.
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10.1007/s11695-020-05054-6
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document_parses/pdf_json/525322bbdaa8be84bf6c1d726f7aee26cb3e2faa.json
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document_parses/pmc_json/PMC7587518.xml.json
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?:title
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Modeling the Impact of Delaying Bariatric Surgery due to COVID-19: a Decision Analysis
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