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BACKGROUND: Global vaccine development efforts have been accelerated in response to the devastating COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the impact of a 2-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign on reducing incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States (US). METHODS: We developed an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and parameterized it with US demographics and age-specific COVID-19 outcomes. Healthcare workers and high-risk individuals were prioritized for vaccination, while children under 18 years of age were not vaccinated. We considered a vaccine efficacy of 90% against infection following 2 doses administered 28 days apart achieving 40% vaccine coverage of the overall population. We specified 10% pre-existing population immunity for the base-case scenario and calibrated to an effective reproduction number of 1.5, accounting for current COVID-19 interventions in the US. RESULTS: Vaccination reduced the overall attack rate to 1.6% (95% CI: 1.3% – 1.8%) from 7.1% (95% CI: 6.3% – 7.9%) across the same period without vaccination. The highest relative reduction (83–90%) was observed among individuals aged 65 and older. Vaccination markedly reduced adverse outcomes, with non-ICU, ICU hospitalizations, and deaths decreasing by 85.2% (95% CI: 82.3% – 87.6%), 85.3% (95% CI: 82.3% – 87.8%), and 87.8% (95% CI: 85.1% – 90.1%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that vaccination can have a substantial impact on reducing disease transmission and adverse clinical outcomes. However, with uptake of 40% or less in the population, vaccination is unlikely to completely eliminate the need for non-pharmaceutical interventions.
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?:doi
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10.1101/2020.11.27.20240051
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document_parses/pdf_json/d0ab719cf20a1e3b15146f46086263766468e2af.json; document_parses/pdf_json/f06cded496acecfc640550fe2143d522b3c4ab44.json
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document_parses/pmc_json/PMC7709178.xml.json
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MedRxiv; Medline; PMC; WHO
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?:title
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The impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States
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