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?:abstract
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How is the relation between duration of lockdown and numbers of infected people and deaths of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and growth level of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in countries? Results here suggest that countries with a shorter period of lockdown (about 15 days) have confirmed cases divided by population higher than countries with a longer period of lockdown (about 60 days, i.e., 2 months); moreover, countries with a shorter period of lockdown have average fatality rate (5.45%) lower than countries with a longer length of lockdown (12.70%), whereas variation of fatality rate from March to August 2020 (first pandemic wave of COVID-19) suggests a higher reduction in countries with a longer period of lockdown than countries with a shorter duration (−1.9% vs. -0.72%). Independent Samples Test reveals that the fatality rate of countries with a shorter period of lockdown was significantly lower than countries with a longer period of lockdown (5.4% vs. 12.7%, p-value<.05). The Mann-Whitney Test confirms that fatality rate of countries with a shorter period of lockdown is significantly lower than countries having a longer period of lockdown (U = 0, p-value = .005). In addition, lockdowns of longer duration have generated negative effects on GDP growth: contraction of GDP (index 2010 = 100) from second quarter 2019 to second quarter of 2020 in countries applying a longer period of lockdown (i.e., about two months) is about −21%, whereas it is −13% in countries applying a shorter period of lockdown of about 15 days (significant difference with Independent Samples Test: t4 = −2.274, p-value < .085). This finding shows a systematic deterioration of economic system because of containment policies based on a longer duration of lockdown in society. Another novel finding here reveals that countries with higher investments in healthcare (as percentage of GDP) have alleviated fatality rate of COVID-19 and simultaneously applied a shorter period of lockdown, reducing negative effects on economic system in terms of contraction of economic growth. Overall, then, using lessons learned of COVID-19 pandemic crisis, this study must conclude that a strategy to reduce the negative impact of future epidemics similar to COVID-19 has to be based on a reinforcement of healthcare sector to have an efficient organization to cope with pandemics of new viral agents and to be able to minimize fatality rates, reducing at the same time restriction policies based on longer duration of lockdowns that generates negative effects on socioeconomic systems.
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