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The outbreak of COVID-19 in China during the Spring Festival of 2020 is an unprecedented event. To explore its impact on China\'s economy, we analyze the daily railway passenger volume data during the Spring Festival travel rush and establish two RegARMA models to predict GDP in the first quarter. The models forecast China might lose 4.8 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2020 affected by COVID-19, an expected decrease of 20.69% (year-on-year drop 15.60%). However, comparing our forecast GDP without COVID-19 (23.2 trillion yuan) with the real GDP (20.65 trillion yuan), there is a smaller drop of 2.55 trillion yuan, a gap of 12.35%. The reason for overestimation is that there are some positive factors including macro-control policies neglected in these models. With the global spread of COVID-19, China should adopt a policy of focusing on both domestic and external affairs against the instability of the world economy. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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COVID-19\'s impact on China\'s economy: a prediction model based on railway transportation statistics.
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