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?:abstract
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The COVID-19 cases and related deaths have been increasing throughout the world, without any let up Health planners, medical professionals, researchers, and scientists have been working relentlessly in containing the disease from the first day, with hardly any success Hence, study has been under taken with an objective to establish the statistical model of trends in COVID-19 active cases for states of India, so that disease containment performance is assessed objectively, taking model as reference level The state-wise data from Kaggle website were used to study the case load, cure rate, and levels and trends in active cases by Modified Second Degree Polynomial Model in Indian state using SPSS-22 and Microsoft Office-10 Spot snap of COVID-19situation as on 21st June, 2020 has also been depicted to fill up the gap infirmity The COVID-19 Active Case Rate varied from 0 to 139 per 100,000 populations COVID-19 Active Case Rate was highest in Delhi followed by Maharashtra, with best state Meghalaya (COVID-19 with Active case rate = 0 3) and Andaman and Nicobar (2 9) In addition, the model fitted well with Coefficient of Determinants (R2) as highest (R2=0 999), with more than 0 80 R2 in 23 states, the states with R2 less than 0 80 had very less number of COVID-19cases, hence, model did not fit well The Modified Quadratic Model had the best fit, to assess the performance of states in controlling the COVID-19 The models are expected to be used by Health Planners and Health Professionals, as the models were fitted well in 23 states Further, the reasons for wide variation in active cases of COVID-19 may be unrest in community due to labour movement Hence, for containment of COVID-19, the need is to restrict labour movement, and pay attention on enhancement of the health services along with provisioning of public necessities
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