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?:abstract
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Background: In Brazil, mathematical models for derivingestimates and projections of COVID-19 cases have been developed without data on asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. We estimated the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 among blood donors in the State of Rio de Janeiro. Methods: Data were collected on 2,857 blood donors from April 14 to 27, 2020. We report the crude prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, the weighted prevalence by the total state population, and adjusted prevalence estimates for test sensitivity and specificity. To establish the correlates of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence, we used logistic regression models. The analysis included period and site of blood collection, sociodemographic characteristics, and place of residence. Results: The proportion of SARS-Cov-2 positive tests without any adjustment was 4.0% (95% CI 3.3-4.7%), and the weighted prevalence was 3.8% (95% CI 3.1-4.5%). Further adjustment by test sensitivity and specificity produced lower estimates, 3.6% (95% CI 2.7-4.4%) and 3.3% (95% CI 2.6-4.1%), respectively. The variable most significantly associated with the crude prevalence was the period of blood collection: the later the period, the higher the prevalence. Regarding socio-demographic characteristics, the younger the blood donors, the higher the prevalence, and the lower the educational level, the higher the odds of a positive SARS-Cov-2 antibody. Similar results were found for the weighted prevalence. Discussion: Although our findings resulted from a convenience sample, they match some basic premises: the increasing trend over time, since the epidemic curve in the state is still on the rise; the higher prevalence among the youngest who are more likely to circulate; and the higher prevalence among the less educated as they have more difficulties in following the social distancing recommendations. Despite the study limitations, it is possible to infer that protective levels of natural herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 are far from being reached in Rio de Janeiro. (AU)
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