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November 2020 received a string of encouraging results from leading vaccine developers raising hopes for the imminent availability of an effective and safe vaccine against the SARS-CoV-2. In the present work, we discuss the theoretical impact of introducing a vaccine across a range of scenarios . In particular, we investigate how vaccination coverage, efficacy, and delivery time affect the control of the transmission dynamics in comparison to mobility restrictions. The analysis is based on a metapopulation epidemic model structured by risk. We perform a global sensitivity analysis using the Sobol method. Our analysis suggest that the reduction of mobility among patches play a significant role in the mitigation of the disease close to the effect of immunization coverage of 30% achieved in 4 months. Moreover, for an immunization coverage between 20%-50% achieved in the first half of 2021 with a vaccine efficacy between 70%-95%, the percentage reduction in the total number of SARS-CoV-2 infections is between 30%-50% by the end of 2021 in comparison with the no vaccination scenario.
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?:doi
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?:doi
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10.1101/2020.12.09.20246538
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document_parses/pdf_json/c78ecee1d6c73403ff876e56d2a251b942ecbc1f.json
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?:title
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The trade-off between mobility and vaccination for COVID-19 control: a metapopulation modeling approach
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