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?:abstract
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Importance: The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on incidence of other infectious diseases is still being assessed. Objective: To determine if the observed change in reported norovirus outbreaks in the United States was best explained by underreporting, seasonal trends, or reduced exposure due to NPIs. We also aimed to assess if the change in reported norovirus outbreaks varied by setting. Design: An ecologic, interrupted time series analysis of norovirus outbreaks from nine states reported to the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) from July 2012-July 2020. Setting: Surveillance data from Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin were included in the analysis. Participants: 9,226 reports of acute gastroenteritis outbreaks with norovirus as an epidemiologically suspected or laboratory-confirmed etiology were included in the analysis, resulting in more than 8 years of follow up. Outbreak reports from states that participated in NoroSTAT for at least 4 years were included in the analysis (range: 4-8 years). Exposure: The main exposure of interest was time period: before (July 2012-February 2020) or after (April 2020-July 2020) the start of NPIs in the United States Main outcome: The main outcome of interest was monthly rate of reported norovirus outbreaks. As a secondary outcome, we also examined the average outbreak size. Results: We found that the decline in norovirus outbreak reports was significant for all 9 states considered (pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) comparing April 2020-July 2020 vs. all pre-COVID months for each state= 0.14, 95% CI: 0.098, 0.21; P=<0.0001), even after accounting for typical seasonal decline in incidence during the summer months. These patterns were similar across a variety of settings, including nursing homes, child daycares, healthcare settings, and schools. The average outbreak size was also reduced by 61% (95% CI: 56%, 42.7%; P=<0.0001), suggesting that the decline does not reflect a tendency to report only more severe outbreaks due to strained surveillance systems, but instead reflects a decline in incidence. Conclusions and relevance: While NPIs implemented during the spring and summer of 2020 were intended to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, these changes also appear to have impacted the incidence of norovirus, a non-respiratory pathogen. These results suggest that NPIs may provide benefit for preventing transmission of other human pathogens, reducing strain to health systems during the continued SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
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