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The standard growth model of epidemic evolution such as the Richards generalized logistic function is remarkably successful because it agrees with almost all previous epidemic data. Yet, it fails to explain intervention measures for mitigations of the ongoing coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) pandemic. It also fails to replicate an endemic phase that occurs in many countries epidemic curves (time series data of daily new cases). These discrepancies demonstrate that new epidemic laws are required to understand, predict and mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we show that almost all COVID-19 evolution can be modeled by three innovative epidemic laws. Specifically, based on the world COVID-19 data, we first divide an epidemic curve into three phases: an exponential growth phase, an exponential decay phase, and a constant endemic phase. We next integrate the growth and the decay phases into the first epidemic law with interventions as a model parameter. This law is completely opposite to the Richards generalized logistic function in terms of intervention measures. We then combine the first epidemic law with the endemic phase to form the second epidemic law, which makes the curve of cumulative cases increase linearly as time tends to infinity. The third epidemic law states if an epidemic is composed of multiple epidemic waves, the superposition principle applies. These laws were confirmed by the COVID-19 data from 18 countries including undeveloped, developing and developed countries. Finally, we pave the way for future research to incorporate the proposed theory into the classic SIR model. We anticipate that the results from this research can provide a scientific base for governments to mitigate the COVID-19 and other epidemic disasters.
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10.1101/2020.12.07.20238253
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document_parses/pdf_json/015999dc1abd6bab94c001e51099e71ce06bb0a7.json
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Theoretical Epidemic Laws Based on Data of COVID-19 Pandemic
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