| Property | Value |
|---|
|
?:abstract
|
-
Laboratory experiments have revealed the meteorological sensitivity of the virus of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, no consensus has been reached about how the meteorological conditions modulate the virus transmission as it is constrained more often by non-meteorological factors. Here, we find that the non-meteorological factors constrain statistically-least the growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases in a country when the cases arrive around 2500-3000. The least-constrained growth rate correlates with the near-surface ultraviolet flux and temperature significantly (correlation coefficients r=-0.55{+/-}0.08 and -0.45{+/-}0.08 at p 10-5, respectively). In response to increases of 1W/m2 ultraviolet and 1{degrees}C temperature, the growth rate decreases by 0.33{+/-}.11% and 0.18{+/-}.08% per day, respectively. The response to the ultraviolet flux exhibits a delay by about 7 days, providing an independent measure of the incubation period. Our quantifications imply a seasonality of COVID-19 and a high risk of a pandemic resurgence in the upcoming boreal winter, suggesting a need for seasonal adaption in public policies.
|
|
is
?:annotates
of
|
|
|
?:creator
|
|
|
?:doi
|
-
10.1101/2020.10.13.20183111
|
|
?:doi
|
|
|
?:license
|
|
|
?:pdf_json_files
|
-
document_parses/pdf_json/85ecec3615330f852388b789c021203f81aa185a.json
|
|
?:publication_isRelatedTo_Disease
|
|
|
?:sha_id
|
|
|
?:source
|
|
|
?:title
|
-
A delayed modulation of solar radiation on the COVID-19 transmission reflects an incubation period
|
|
?:type
|
|
|
?:year
|
|
![[This page as RDF]](https://research.tib.eu/covid-19/static/rdf-icon.gif){kind=icon}