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A Monte Carlo simulation in a novel approach is used for studying the problem of the outbreak and spread dynamics of the new virus COVID-19 pandemic in this work. In particular, our goal was to generate epidemic data based on the natural mechanism of the transmission of this disease assuming random interactions of a large-finite number of individuals in very short distance ranges. In the simulation we also take into account the stochastic character of the individuals in a finite population and given densities of people. On the other hand, we include in the simulation the appropriate statistical distributions for the parameters characterizing this disease. An important outcome of our work, apart of the produced epidemic curves, is the methodology of determination of the effective reproductive number during the main part of the new daily cases of the epidemic. Because this quantity constitutes a fundamental parameter of the SIR-based epidemic models, we also studied how it is affected by small variations of the incubation time and the crucial distance distributions, and furthermore, by the degree of quarantine measures. Moreover, we compare our qualitative results with that of selected real epidemic data from some world wide countries.
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10.1101/2020.12.03.20243220
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document_parses/pdf_json/459e9dde8e542652767f0b3c7e38cfedef814279.json
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Novel Approach for Monte Carlo Simulation of the new COVID-19 Spread Dynamics
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