PropertyValue
?:abstract
  • Superspreaders, infected individuals who result in an outsized number of secondary cases, are believed to underlie a significant fraction of total SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here, we combine empirical observations of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission and extreme value statistics to show that the distribution of secondary cases is consistent with being fat-tailed, implying that large superspreading events are extremal, yet probable, occurrences. We integrate these results with interaction-based network models of disease transmission and show that superspreading, when it is fat-tailed, leads to pronounced transmission by increasing dispersion. Our findings indicate that large superspreading events should be the targets of interventions that minimize tail exposure.
is ?:annotates of
?:creator
?:doi
?:doi
  • 10.1073/pnas.2018490117
?:journal
  • Proc_Natl_Acad_Sci_U_S_A
?:license
  • cc-by
?:pdf_json_files
  • document_parses/pdf_json/6930d40a6b2f47b305f329030240296271e700ef.json; document_parses/pdf_json/926b8a09124efd58ed120558da47169bcb36506f.json
?:pmc_json_files
  • document_parses/pmc_json/PMC7703634.xml.json
?:pmcid
?:pmid
?:pmid
  • 33139561.0
?:publication_isRelatedTo_Disease
?:sha_id
?:source
  • Medline; PMC
?:title
  • Evidence that coronavirus superspreading is fat-tailed
?:type
?:year
  • 2020-11-24

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