| Property | Value |
|---|
|
?:abstract
|
-
BACKGROUND: Serology tests can identify previous infections and facilitate estimation of the number of total infections. However, immunoglobulins targeting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been reported to wane below the detectable level of serological assays. We estimate the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection from serology studies, accounting for expected levels of antibody acquisition (seroconversion) and waning (seroreversion), and apply this framework using data from New York City (NYC) and Connecticut. METHODS: We estimated time from seroconversion to seroreversion and infection fatality ratio (IFR) using mortality data from March-October 2020 and population-level cross-sectional seroprevalence data from April-August 2020 in NYC and Connecticut. We then estimated the daily seroprevalence and cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. FINDINGS: The estimated average time from seroconversion to seroreversion was 3–4 months. The estimated IFR was 1.1% (95% credible interval: 1.0–1.2%) in NYC and 1.4% (1.1–1.7%) in Connecticut. The estimated daily seroprevalence declined after a peak in the spring. The estimated cumulative incidence reached 26.8% (24.2–29.7%) and 8.8% (7.1–11.3%) at the end of September in NYC and Connecticut, higher than maximum seroprevalence measures (22.1% and 6.1%), respectively. INTERPRETATION: The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection is underestimated using cross-sectional serology data without adjustment for waning antibodies. Our approach can help quantify the magnitude of underestimation and adjust estimates for waning antibodies. FUNDING: This study was supported by the US National Science Foundation and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
|
|
is
?:annotates
of
|
|
|
?:creator
|
|
|
?:doi
|
|
|
?:doi
|
-
10.1101/2020.11.13.20231266
|
|
?:journal
|
|
|
?:license
|
|
|
?:pdf_json_files
|
-
document_parses/pdf_json/2540a4365ae80b87dc1f1622630cafe7ec5a0ab8.json; document_parses/pdf_json/f41aa62cf161158d16eb861522e2550ef3cea43a.json
|
|
?:pmc_json_files
|
-
document_parses/pmc_json/PMC7685353.xml.json
|
|
?:pmcid
|
|
|
?:pmid
|
|
|
?:pmid
|
|
|
?:publication_isRelatedTo_Disease
|
|
|
?:sha_id
|
|
|
?:source
|
-
MedRxiv; Medline; PMC; WHO
|
|
?:title
|
-
Estimating the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and the infection fatality ratio in light of waning antibodies
|
|
?:type
|
|
|
?:year
|
|
![[This page as RDF]](https://research.tib.eu/covid-19/static/rdf-icon.gif){kind=icon}