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From the Executive Summary: The government has set out plans for a staged re-opening of different parts of the economy as the country emerges from lockdown But if easing goes too far, the spread of the virus could begin to accelerate again, risking thousands more lives and a potentially more severe second economic shock To make matters worse, we have no clear sense of the likely impact of different easing steps on the reproduction number, R And since the virus spreads rapidly, and unseen at first, we will only learn of any missteps long after they have been made This paper proposes a Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] early-warning model to help policymakers navigate this perilous terrain By allowing them to forecast and monitor the effect of easing measures on the spread of the virus in real time, such a tool could help us manage the virus and minimise the cost at a national and local level COVID-19 (Disease);Public health;Disaster recovery
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