?:abstract
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PURPOSE: To assess associations between imaging biomarkers from standard of care pre-treatment CT and FDG-PET scans and loco-regional (LR) and distant metastatic (DM) recurrences in patients with p16+ oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy (CRT). METHODS: An institutional database from a single NCI-designated cancer center identified 266 patients with p16+ OPSCC treated with definitive CRT in our department from 2005-2016 with evaluable pre-treatment FDG-PET scans. Quantitative SUV metrics and qualitative imaging metrics were determined from FDG-PET and CT scans, while clinical characteristics were abstracted from the medical record. Associations between clinical/imaging features and time to LR (TTLRF) or DM (TTDMF) failure and overall survival (OS) were assessed using univariable Cox regression and penalized stepwise regression for multivariable analyses (MVA). RESULTS: There were 27 LR and 32 DM recurrences as incident failures. Imaging biomarkers were significantly associated with TTLRF, TTDMF and OS. FDG-PET metrics outperformed CT and clinical metrics for TTLRF, with metabolic tumor volume being the only significant feature selected on MVA: C-index=0.68 (p=0.01). Radiographic extranodal extension (rENE), positive retropharyngeal nodes (RPN+), and clinical stage were significant on MVA for TTDMF: C-index=0.84 (p<0.001). rENE, group stage, and RPN+ were significant on MVA for OS: C-index=0.77 (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In the largest study to date of uniformly treated patients with CRT to evaluate both pretreatment CT and FDG-PET, radiographic biomarkers were significantly associated with TTLRF, TTDMF and OS among patients with p16+ OPSCC treated with CRT. CT metrics performed best to predict TTDMF, while FDG-PET metrics showed improved prediction for LRRFS. These metrics may help identify candidates for treatment intensification or de-escalation of therapy. STATEMENT OF TRANSLATIONAL RELEVANCE: Pre-treatment imaging features from standard-of-care PET/CT imaging show promise for predicting long-term outcomes following HPV-associated oropharynx cancer (HPV-OPC) therapy. This study comprehensively characterizes qualitative and quantitative pre-treatment imaging metrics associated with time to pattern-specific failure in a cohort of 266 patients treated uniformly with definitive chemoradiation. Multivariate analysis (MVA) for time to loco-regional failure (TTLRF), time to distant metastatic failure (TTDMF), and overall survival (OS) was performed. FDG-PET metrics outperformed CT and clinical metrics for TTLRF. CT radiographic extranodal extension, positive retropharyngeal nodes, and stage strongly predicted TTDMF (combined C-index=0.84, log rank p<0.001). Number of smoking pack-years complemented clinical and imaging features only in patients without radiographic extranodal extension or positive retropharyngeal nodes. Time to pattern-specific failure is important for guiding treatment de-escalation strategies, which intend to reduce treatment-related toxicity in patients with relatively long expected survival times. This study suggests that PET/CT features should play a crucial role in future de-escalation trials and management of HPV-OPC patients.
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