PropertyValue
?:abstract
  • Background: One month after the first COVID-19 infection was recorded, Portugal counted 18,051 cases and 599 deaths from COVID-19. To understand the overall impact on mortality of the pandemic of COVID-19, we estimated the excess mortality registered in Portugal during the first month of the epidemic, from March 16 until April 14 using two different methods. Methods: We compared the observed and expected daily deaths (historical average number from daily death registrations in the past 10 years) and used 2 standard deviations confidence limit for all-cause mortality by age and specific mortality cause, considering the last 6 years. An adapted Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was also tested to validate the estimated number of all-cause deaths during the study period. Results: Between March 16 and April 14, there was an excess of 1255 all-cause deaths, 14% more than expected. The number of daily deaths often surpassed the 2 standard deviations confidence limit. The excess mortality occurred mostly in people aged 75+. Forty-nine percent (49%) of the estimated excess deaths were registered as due to COVID-19, the other 51% registered as other natural causes. Conclusion: Even though Portugal took early containment measures against COVID-19, and the population complied massively with those measures, there was significant excess mortality during the first month of the pandemic, mostly among people aged 75+. Only half of the excess mortality was registered as directly due do COVID-19.
?:creator
?:doi
  • 10.2991/jegh.k.200628.001
?:doi
?:journal
  • J_Epidemiol_Glob_Health
?:license
  • cc-by-nc
?:pdf_json_files
  • document_parses/pdf_json/b4dfc5a6c4db3fae8619f3789c7eac675806036e.json
?:pmc_json_files
  • document_parses/pmc_json/PMC7509098.xml.json
?:pmcid
?:pmid
?:pmid
  • 32954711.0
?:publication_isRelatedTo_Disease
?:sha_id
?:source
  • Medline; PMC
?:title
  • Rapid Estimation of Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Portugal -Beyond Reported Deaths
?:type
?:year
  • 2020-09-15

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