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?:abstract
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Current projections and unprecedented storm activity to date suggest the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will be extremely active and that a major hurricane could make landfall during the global COVID-19 pandemic. Such an event would necessitate a large-scale evacuation, with implications for the trajectory of the pandemic. Here we model how a hypothetical hurricane evacuation from four counties in southeast Florida would affect COVID-19 case levels. We find that hurricane evacuation increases the total number of COVID-19 cases in both origin and destination locations; however, if transmission rates in destination counties can be kept from rising during evacuation, excess evacuation-induced case numbers can be minimized by directing evacuees to counties experiencing lower COVID-19 transmission rates. Ultimately, the number of excess COVID-19 cases produced by the evacuation depends on the ability of destination counties to meet evacuee needs while minimizing virus exposure through public health directives.
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?:creator
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?:doi
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?:doi
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10.1101/2020.08.07.20170555
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?:license
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?:publication_isRelatedTo_Disease
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?:source
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?:title
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Compound risks of hurricane evacuation amid the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States
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?:who_covidence_id
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?:year
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