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Background Despite thousands of influenza cases annually recorded by surveillance systems around the globe, estimating the transmission patterns of seasonal influenza is challenging. Methods We develop an age-structured mathematical model to influenza transmission to analyze ten consecutive seasons (from 2010-2011 to 2019-2020) of influenza epidemiological and virological data reported to the Italian surveillance system. Results We estimate that 18.4%-29.3% of influenza infections are detected by the surveillance system. Influenza infection attack rate varied between 18.0% and 35.6% and is generally larger for seasons characterized by the circulation of A/H3N2 and/or B types/subtypes. Individuals aged 14 years or less are the most affected age-segment of the population, with A viruses especially affecting children aged 0-4 years. For all influenza types/subtypes, the mean effective reproduction number is estimated to be generally in the range 1.1-1.4 (8 out of 10 seasons) and never exceeding 1.55. The age-specific susceptibility to infection appears to be a type/subtype-specific feature. Conclusions The results presented in this study provide insights on type/subtype-specific transmission patterns of seasonal influenza that could be instrumental to fine-tune immunization strategies and non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at limiting seasonal influenza spread and burden.
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10.1101/2020.11.29.20240457
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document_parses/pdf_json/08fffef903e678459d5192fbc18c84b54bb8635d.json
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Characterizing the transmission patterns of seasonal influenza in Italy: lessons from the last decade
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