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Since mid-March 2020 the Federal and state governments in Germany agreed on comprehensive public health measures to contain the spread of Covid-19. We study the effects of the policy actions on the progression of the pandemic in the first containment period in spring 2020 before easing of measures have started to work by the end of April. To exploit both the time and spatial dimension in the dissemination of the virus, we conduct a spatial data panel analysis for German NUTS-3 regions. Specifically, we employ a spatial difference-in-differences approach to identify the effects of individual public health measures. We find that contact restrictions and closure of schools substantially contributed to flattening the infection curve. Additionally, a strong treatment effect of wearing face masks is established in the few treated regions during the containment phase. No incremental effect is evidenced for closure of establishments and shutdown of shopping malls and other stores. These findings prove to be highly robust to changes in model specification. By contrast, the dampening effect of restaurant closure is sensitive to model variation.
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?:doi
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10.1101/2020.12.15.20248173
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document_parses/pdf_json/0aa348a9a65b674e629228e25297fae4cba21c31.json
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The Covid-19 containment effects of public health measures - A spatial difference-in-differences approach
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