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Space and water heating accounts for 41% [1] of final energy consumption in the European Union (EU) and thus plays a key role in reducing overall costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Many scenarios to reach net-zero emissions in buildings rely on electrification via heat pumps as well as resistive heating, but meeting the peaks of demand in the winter can be challenging, particularly when wind and solar resources are low. In this paper we examine how best to manage space heating demand peaks in a model comprising the European electricity, heat and transport sectors with high temporal and spatial resolution and with net carbon dioxide emissions constrained to be zero. We show that the strong peaks of space heating demand in winter drive up the system cost by 30% compared to a heating profile with no seasonal variations. We focus on technologies to address these heating peaks, namely retrofitting the thermal envelope of buildings, thermal energy storage and individual hybrid heat pumps with backup methane boilers, in a net-zero emission sector coupled model. It is shown that the seasonal interaction between generation and heat demand determines the strength of usage of these measures. If all three instruments are applied, overall costs are reduced by up to 20% of which building renovation enables the largest benefit with cost savings of up to 17%. Furthermore we demonstrate that the exclusion of individual gas boilers and the associated distribution network leads to only 1-2% higher system costs, if there is retrofitting of the thermal envelope.
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Mitigating heat demand peaks in buildings in a highly renewable European energy system
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