| Property | Value |
|---|
|
?:abstract
|
-
We study the transition of an epidemic from growth phase to decay of the active infections in a population when lockdown measures are introduced to reduce the probability of disease transmission. While in the case of uniform lockdown a simple compartmental model would indicate instantaneous transition to decay of the epidemic, this is not the case when partially isolated active clusters remain with the potential to create a series of small outbreaks. We model this using a connected set of stochastic susceptible-infected-removed/recovered (SIR) models representing the locked-down majority population (where the reproduction number is less than one) weakly coupled to a large set of small clusters where the infection may propagate. We find that the presence of such active clusters can lead to slower than expected decay of the epidemic and significantly delayed onset of the decay phase. We study the relative contributions of these changes to the additional total infections caused by the active clusters within the locked-down population. We also demonstrate that limiting the size of the inevitable active clusters can be efficient in reducing their impact on the overall size of the epidemic outbreak.
|
|
is
?:annotates
of
|
|
|
?:creator
|
|
|
?:doi
|
|
|
?:doi
|
-
10.1101/2020.12.14.20248154
|
|
?:externalLink
|
|
|
?:license
|
|
|
?:pdf_json_files
|
-
document_parses/pdf_json/7e25b01abe990cd88191672958654560b46264f1.json
|
|
?:publication_isRelatedTo_Disease
|
|
|
?:sha_id
|
|
|
?:source
|
|
|
?:title
|
-
Transition from growth to decay of an epidemic due to lockdown
|
|
?:type
|
|
|
?:year
|
|
![[This page as RDF]](https://research.tib.eu/covid-19/static/rdf-icon.gif){kind=icon}