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After a difficult 2020, the economy should return to growth in 2021 While the arrival of a coronavirus vaccine bodes well for the services sector, the near term now appears increasingly challenging after a sharp rise in Covid-19 cases prompted another state of emergency (SOE) declaration for Tokyo and other major prefectures, initially for a one-month period from 8 January We forecast GDP to rise 2 7% in 2021 and 2 4% in 2022 (from 2 5% and 3 1% previously) The possibility of an extension of the SOE poses a downside risk for our 2021 forecast whereas a faster decline in infections and an effective rollout of the vaccine pose an upside risk © Oxford Economics 2021
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GDP likely contracted very sharply in Q2 2020 as household and business spending fell amid the state of emergency in effect from April to May While we expect growth to bounce back in Q3 as activity and spending regain lost ground, the subsequent recovery will likely be very gradual as external demand stays weak and concerns over the virus linger A renewed pick-up in infections and a return to restrictions on activity are downside risks We forecast GDP to shrink 6% in 2020, before growing 2 8% in 2021
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The pandemic hit the economy extremely hard, causing a 7 9% q/q contraction in Q2 2020, the largest quarterly drop on record Spending and activity have recovered after the state of emergency was lifted in late May and we expect a robust rebound in growth in Q3 That said, forward‐looking indicators paint a mixed picture, so we expect the subsequent recovery to be uneven and protracted On the political side, Yoshihide Suga succeeded Shinzo Abe as Prime Minister in mid‐ September and will likely continue to follow the policy path his predecessor charted We forecast GDP to shrink 5 7% in 2020 before growing 2 5% in 2021 (compared to −6 0% and +2 8% previously)
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With the coronavirus pandemic disrupting activity in Japan and worldwide, we expect GDP to record a sharp contraction in 2020 Domestic demand will fall rapidly as people stay at home while crumbling foreign demand and supply chain disruptions will hit manufacturers and exporters We now expect GDP in 2020 to shrink 4 8%, compared to our January forecast of 0 3% growth, highlighting how quickly the pandemic and the containment measures have clouded the economic outlook in Japan and across the world For 2021, we forecast GDP to grow 3 9%, with the now-postponed Tokyo Olympics providing a modest but welcome boost
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