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?:abstract
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Coronavirus (COVID19) is an infectious disease that attacks the human body, particularly within the respiratory regions, e g , nasal and lung tissues COVID19 infection is classified into three different stages: mild, moderate, and severe Recovery from the first two stages can mostly be achieved without special treatment, but these stages can lead to death for older people and those who have underlying medical conditions, such as diabetes, chronic-respiratory disease, HIV, and cardiovascular disease COVID19 prefers to attack the tissues and membranes of the respiratory system, especially those found in the nose, throat, and on the external surface of the lungs Aquaporins (AQPs) are a large family of integral biomembranes that facilitate transport of water and small biomolecules between cells The current work develops two scientific sub-models, i e , biological and statistical The biological model is aimed at investigating the realistic mechanism of bio-interaction between the two types of COV and different AQP protein channels This model is obtained mathematically by evaluating the magnitude of the potential energy arising from SARSCOV and COVID19 penetrating the cavity of the AQP protein channels located on the external surface of human cells We use an exponential function to estimate the transmission rate of COVID19 with respect to time in different territories Additionally, we observe that temperature and direct contact play major roles in determining the number of infected cases, and consider relative humidity as a secondary factor Our results show that AQP1, AQP3, and AQP4 are the most favorable tissues for COVID19 spread because their pH exceeds 6 5 A mathematical model is developed that describes the behavior of the COVID19 outbreak in terms of temperature (mu) and direct contact (alpha) rate
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